Summary: How much of this overwhelming “vibe” of recession is real? According to most mainstream sources, it is purely a matter of biased perspective. That view seems to be based on solid data. Yet, it is actually grounded in incomplete interpretation of questionable data that gets more so not less. Some important recent updates raise more problems by showing the “vibe” has already been far more plausible.

Summary: Continuing to evaluate the effectiveness of our monetary and financial signals. With markets on a rampage right now, it is as important as ever to calibrate and review. What have massive inversions really been saying all this time? What does their increasingly negative spreads say about what’s still ahead?

Summary: With curves hugely inverted, it’s quite natural to ask, what are the chances they are sending a false positive? The answer to that question depends on what you mean. Here we’ll take the first of several deeper dives into the recent history of curve/financial indications to evaluate them for their usefulness and performance. In doing so, we’ll uncover what they’re really telling us. It isn’t about another Lehman.